# Editorial: A 'normal' northeast monsoon in a strong El Niño year can still bring floods

URL: https://upsc.help/current-affairs/2026-10-26/northeast-monsoon-el-nino-flood-editorial/
Date: 26 October 2026 (2026-10-26)
Source: The Hindu, Editorial
UPSC papers: GS1, GS3
Publisher: upsc.help (Pratidin), free and open-source UPSC Civil Services current affairs. Not affiliated with UPSC. Every fact was checked against the source reports by a separate review before publishing.

**In one line:** After a 12.6% deficit in the summer monsoon, IMD expects a normal northeast monsoon for the south, but The Hindu warns that a wide 'normal' band in a strong El Niño year can still hide destructive rain.

The Hindu's editorial 'Wicked surprise' on 26 October 2026 turns to the northeast monsoon after a poor southwest monsoon. June to September rainfall in 2026 was 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm, a 12.6% deficit and the driest season in 11 years, which hurt kharif sowing and food prices. The southern peninsula now depends on the October to December rains. On 1 October the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that rainfall over South Peninsular India this season is most likely to be 'normal', that is 88% to 112% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of about 334.13 mm based on 1971 to 2020 data. It expects normal to above-normal rain over southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu and below-normal rain over most other parts of the region.

The southwest monsoon withdrew from the whole country on 15 October 2026, and northeast monsoon rains began the same day over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, and Kerala and Mahe. Tamil Nadu receives about 48% of its annual rainfall in these three months. The backdrop is a strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, which IMD says is likely to strengthen through the end of 2026 and continue into early 2027, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. El Niño tends to weaken the southwest monsoon, but its link with northeast monsoon rain is less consistent.

The editorial's warning is about what 'normal' hides. It argues that a band of plus or minus 12% around the average is much wider than the error margin of IMD's southwest monsoon forecasts, so a 'normal' season can still contain extreme spells. It recalls that the catastrophic Chennai floods of December 2015 came in a strong El Niño year. It asks States to clear stormwater drains, strengthen shelters, plan for damage to infrastructure and sharpen local warnings before the peak of the season. The underlying point for policy is that drought and flood preparedness are not alternatives: a deficient summer monsoon and intense winter rain can hit the same region in the same year.

## Prelims facts

- The 2026 southwest monsoon gave 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm, a 12.6% deficit.
- IMD forecasts 'normal' October to December rain (88% to 112% of an LPA of about 334.13 mm) over South Peninsular India.
- The southwest monsoon withdrew from the country on 15 October 2026, the same day northeast monsoon rains began over the southern peninsula.
- Tamil Nadu receives about 48% of its annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon.
- IMD expects the strong El Niño to persist into early 2027, with the Indian Ocean Dipole neutral.

## Quick recall

- **Southwest monsoon 2026: actual and normal rainfall?** 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm, a 12.6% deficit.
- **IMD's 'normal' range for the northeast monsoon over South Peninsular India?** 88% to 112% of the LPA.
- **LPA of October to December rainfall over South Peninsular India?** About 334.13 mm, based on 1971 to 2020.
- **On what date did the southwest monsoon withdraw from the whole country in 2026?** 15 October 2026.
- **What share of Tamil Nadu's annual rainfall comes in the northeast monsoon?** About 48%.
- **State of the IOD in IMD's 1 October 2026 outlook?** Neutral, likely to stay neutral through the season.
- **Which major flood came in a strong El Niño year and is cited by the editorial?** The Chennai floods of December 2015.
- **Where does IMD expect normal to above-normal rain this season?** Southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

## Prelims practice question

In IMD's outlook for the 2026 northeast monsoon, 'normal' rainfall over South Peninsular India is defined as rainfall within what range of the Long Period Average?

(a) 96% to 104%
(b) 90% to 110%
(c) 88% to 112%
(d) 80% to 120%

Answer: (c) 88% to 112%. IMD's 1 October 2026 outlook says the October to December rainfall over South Peninsular India is most likely to be normal, defined as 88% to 112% of the LPA (about 334.13 mm, based on 1971 to 2020). The 96% to 104% band is used for 'normal' in the all-India southwest monsoon forecast.

## UPSC previous-year questions this connects to

- UPSC Mains 2014, GS1: Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El-Nino effect. Do you agree? (https://upsc.help/pyq/q030-most-unusual-climatic-happenings-explained-outcome-el-nino/)
  How to use this story in the answer: Use 2026 to show that El Niño explains some anomalies, like the summer deficit, but not all, since its northeast monsoon link is inconsistent.
- UPSC Mains 2015, GS1: How far do you agree that the behaviour of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanising landscape? Discuss. (https://upsc.help/pyq/q278-far-do-you-agree-behaviour-indian-monsoon/)
- UPSC Prelims 2017, Prelims: With reference to 'Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)' sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. 2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino's impact on the monsoon. (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 (https://upsc.help/pyq/q032-reference-indian-ocean-dipole-iod-sometimes-mentioned/)

## Mains practice question

El Niño is usually associated with drought in India, yet southern India often faces floods in El Niño years. Explain the northeast monsoon and discuss the preparedness needed for its extremes. (250 words)

### Model answer

The 2026 southwest monsoon ended 12.6% below normal (759.4 mm against 868.6 mm) under a strong El Niño. Yet IMD forecasts a 'normal' northeast monsoon, and The Hindu's editorial warns of extreme rain.

## The northeast monsoon
- October to December rains after the southwest monsoon withdraws and winds turn north-easterly.
- Confined mainly to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala.
- Tamil Nadu gets about 48% of its annual rain in this season.
- Rain comes largely from low-pressure systems and cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, which peak in this period.
- 2026: onset of rains on 15 October; IMD forecasts 88% to 112% of an LPA of about 334.13 mm.

## Why El Niño matters differently
- El Niño weakens the southwest monsoon.
- Its link with northeast monsoon rain is weaker and inconsistent; the December 2015 Chennai floods came in a strong El Niño year.
- IOD and the Madden-Julian Oscillation also shape the season.

## Preparedness
- **Urban drainage:** desilt stormwater drains and protect lakes and natural channels from encroachment.
- **Early warning:** localised, impact-based alerts and reservoir release protocols.
- **Shelters and response:** pre-positioned State and National Disaster Response Forces, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans.
- **Agriculture:** contingency crop plans for both deficit and excess.
- **Institutions:** implement NDMA urban flood guidelines and city-level flood plans.

## Conclusion
A 'normal' forecast is an average, not a guarantee; the south must plan for drought and deluge in the same year.

## The basics

## Why this matters
Most Indians think of the monsoon as June to September. For Tamil Nadu and parts of the south, the season that matters most comes later. The Northeast monsoon decides whether Chennai's reservoirs fill and whether its streets flood. In 2026 it arrives after a weak summer monsoon and during a strong El Niño, which makes it both more needed and harder to predict.

## Two monsoons, one peninsula
The southwest monsoon brings moist winds from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal across most of India. As it withdraws in October, winds over the south turn north-easterly, and the Bay of Bengal becomes the source of rain for the south-east coast.

## Reading an IMD forecast
IMD compares seasonal rain with a Long Period Average (LPA) and gives a category. For the northeast monsoon over South Peninsular India, 'normal' means 88% to 112% of the LPA of about 334.13 mm. That band is wide, which is the editorial's point: 'normal' can include very wet weeks.

## The flood risk
Rain in this season often comes from depressions and cyclones over the Bay of Bengal, which can dump a month's rain in a day. When drains are clogged and lakes built over, Urban flooding follows, as Chennai saw in December 2015, a strong El Niño year. The Indian Ocean Dipole and other factors also shape how much rain falls.

The takeaway for an answer: El Niño does not mean 'dry' everywhere, and a normal forecast is not a safety certificate.

## Sources

- https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/mcmarq/mcmarq_data/Outlook%20for%20the%20NE%20Monsoon%20over%20SPI_1Oct%2026_ENGLISH.pdf
- https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/mcmarq/mcmarq_data/press%2015102026.pdf
- https://www.legacyias.com/?p=185730
- https://chahalacademy.com/the-hindu-editorial-analysis/26-oct-2026/2963
- https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/widespread-northeast-monsoon-imd