# Cyclone Arnab crosses Andhra coast; El Niño helps explain its path and strength

URL: https://upsc.help/current-affairs/2026-10-29/cyclone-arnab-el-nino-landfall/
Date: 29 October 2026 (2026-10-29)
Source: Indian Express, Page 4
UPSC papers: GS1, GS3
Publisher: upsc.help (Pratidin), free and open-source UPSC Civil Services current affairs. Not affiliated with UPSC. Every fact was checked against the source reports by a separate review before publishing.

**In one line:** Cyclone Arnab struck the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts as a very severe cyclonic storm on 28 October 2026, and El Niño helps explain why it formed so far south and turned towards Andhra.

Cyclone Arnab, the first cyclone of 2026 in the North Indian Ocean basin, crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam (Puducherry) coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam in the early hours of Wednesday, 28 October 2026, as a very severe cyclonic storm. It began as a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal on 23 October and became a cyclonic storm by 26 October, then intensified rapidly through the severe and very severe categories, with sustained winds of 125 to 135 km/h. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) advanced its landfall forecast from the forenoon to the early hours of 28 October because the storm moved faster than expected.

Unusually, the storm's centre stayed nearly stationary near Narsapur and Yanam from about 4 am, so it kept its intensity for at least six hours after landfall before weakening. Visakhapatnam recorded 217 mm of rain. Reports put evacuations across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha at more than 1.8 lakh people. The National Disaster Response Force said three people died and 31 homes were damaged. The IMD placed Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on red alert and Chhattisgarh on orange alert, and warned that the storm's remnants would bring very heavy rain to several States further inland.

The Indian Express links Arnab's track to El Niño, the abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region were 2 to 2.8°C above normal from July to September 2026, and the 2026 El Niño is forecast to be among the strongest on record. As the southwest monsoon retreats, the monsoon trough shifts south; in El Niño years, changed winds and pressure near the equator tend to make North Indian Ocean cyclones form closer to the equator, so they are more likely to strike Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu than Odisha and West Bengal. Experts caution that rapid intensification also depends on warm water at depth, low vertical wind shear and other factors, not El Niño alone.

## Prelims facts

- Cyclone Arnab, the first North Indian Ocean cyclone of 2026, crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam early on 28 October 2026 as a very severe cyclonic storm.
- It formed as a low-pressure area on 23 October and became a cyclone by 26 October, with sustained winds of 125 to 135 km/h at peak.
- It stayed nearly stationary near Narsapur and Yanam and kept its intensity for at least six hours after landfall.
- Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures were 2 to 2.8°C above normal in July to September 2026.
- In El Niño years, North Indian Ocean cyclones tend to form at lower latitudes and track towards Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

## Quick recall

- **Where did Cyclone Arnab make landfall?** Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, early on 28 October 2026.
- **Category of Cyclone Arnab at landfall?** Very severe cyclonic storm.
- **Peak sustained winds of Cyclone Arnab?** 125 to 135 km/h.
- **When did Arnab's low-pressure area form?** 23 October 2026, over the southeast Bay of Bengal.
- **Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly in July to September 2026?** 2 to 2.8°C above normal.
- **Lower wind threshold of IMD's very severe cyclonic storm?** 118 km/h.
- **Minimum sea temperature usually needed for cyclone formation?** About 26°C, extending 50 to 100 m deep.
- **In El Niño years, where do North Indian Ocean cyclones tend to form?** Closer to the equator, raising the odds of landfall in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

## Prelims practice question

With reference to tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, consider the following statements:
1. A very severe cyclonic storm, in IMD's classification, has maximum sustained winds of at least 118 km/h.
2. Sea surface water of at least about 26°C is a necessary condition for cyclone formation.
3. In El Niño years, cyclones in this basin tend to form farther from the equator than usual.
Which of the statements given above are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3

Answer: (a) 1 and 2 only. Statement 1 is correct: IMD's very severe category begins at 118 km/h. Statement 2 is correct: warm water of about 26°C or more, extending to some depth, fuels cyclones. Statement 3 is wrong: in El Niño years they tend to form closer to the equator, which pushes tracks towards Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

## UPSC previous-year questions this connects to

- UPSC Mains 2014, GS1: Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El-Nino effect. Do you agree? (https://upsc.help/pyq/q030-most-unusual-climatic-happenings-explained-outcome-el-nino/)
  How to use this story in the answer: Shows El Niño can shift where Bay of Bengal cyclones form and strike, while other factors still govern intensity.
- UPSC Mains 2014, GS1: Tropical cyclones are largely confined to the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. Why? (https://upsc.help/pyq/q363-tropical-cyclones-largely-confined-south-china-sea/)
  How to use this story in the answer: Provides a recent Bay of Bengal example of the warm-water and low-shear conditions that make these seas cyclone-prone.
- UPSC Mains 2022, GS1: Discuss the meaning of colour-coded weather warnings for cyclone prone areas given by India Meteorological Department. (https://upsc.help/pyq/gs1/#q364)
  How to use this story in the answer: Gives a live example of red and orange alerts guiding evacuation before a very severe cyclonic storm.

## Mains practice question

How does El Niño influence the formation, track and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal? Discuss with reference to Cyclone Arnab of October 2026. (150 words)

### Model answer

Cyclone Arnab, the first North Indian Ocean cyclone of 2026, crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts on 28 October 2026 as a very severe cyclonic storm, in a year with a strong El Niño.

## Influence on formation and track
- El Niño warms the central and eastern equatorial Pacific; Niño 3.4 was 2 to 2.8°C above normal in July to September 2026.
- With the monsoon trough shifting south, El Niño-linked changes in winds and pressure make cyclones form closer to the equator.
- Such storms are likelier to hit Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu than Odisha and West Bengal.

## Influence on intensity
- Unusual warming of the North Indian Ocean adds energy; Arnab intensified rapidly to 125 to 135 km/h.
- It stayed nearly stationary near Yanam, keeping its strength for six hours after landfall.

## Caveats
- Wind shear, ocean heat content and land interaction also matter.

## Conclusion
El Niño years call for wider coastal preparedness in southern States.

## The basics

## Why this matters
Cyclones are a fixture of UPSC geography and disaster management questions. Cyclone Arnab adds a twist: a late-October Bay of Bengal storm that struck Andhra Pradesh rather than Odisha or Bengal, in a year of strong El Niño. Understanding why requires three static ideas: how cyclones form, how IMD grades them, and what El Niño does to the Indian Ocean.

## How a tropical cyclone forms
A Tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system in which winds spiral inward and upward around a calm centre. It needs warm ocean water, moist air, enough distance from the equator for the Coriolis force to spin it, and low vertical wind shear so the storm column is not torn apart.

## How IMD grades storms
The IMD cyclone classification uses maximum sustained wind speed. The thresholds below are the lower limits of each category.

## The El Niño connection
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is unusually warm. In 2026 the Niño 3.4 region was 2 to 2.8°C above normal from July to September. In such years, post-monsoon cyclones in the North Indian Ocean tend to form at lower latitudes, so their tracks bend towards Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu instead of Odisha and West Bengal.

## Why Arnab lingered
Most cyclones weaken quickly over land because they lose their supply of warm, moist air. Arnab's centre stayed almost stationary near Narsapur and Yanam, and it held its strength for at least six hours after landfall. Rapid intensification before landfall and slow movement at landfall are the combination disaster managers fear most.

## Sources

- https://www.outlookindia.com/national/cyclone-arnab-el-niño-warm-seas-and-the-factors-behind-its-rapid-intensification
- https://vajiramandravi.com/current-affairs/?p=131008
- https://kuwaittimes.com/article/52548/world/cyclone-arnab-kills-at-least-3-in-southern-india-before-weakening/
- https://www.oneindia.com/india/cyclone-arnab-landfall-storm-remains-nearly-stationary-off-andhra-coast-imd-says-8243577.html
- https://superkalam.com/current-affairs/29-10-2026/how-el-ni-o-shaped-path-intensity-of-cyclone-arnab-pg4-1a14f920-f0df-4c6d-9b9f-518821881d72
- https://www.deccanherald.com/india/explained-how-imd-categorises-cyclones-989000.html