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At the beginning of May, Duvvuri Subbarao, a former RBI governor, said that India could look forward to a V-shaped recovery. A V-shaped recovery is the best outcome. Arthur D. Little, an international consulting firm, has suggested that India will most probably see a W-shaped recovery. Mythili Bhusnurmath writes in The Economic Times that U- shaped recovery is the most likely followed by an L-shaped recovery. CRISIL chief economist says if things go well, that if the virus is contained, we can expect a V- recovery, otherwise it will end up as a U-recovery.
In the second week of May, companies started preparations for restarting operations. Some companies opened offices with the maximum permitted strength of 33% while others took a more cautious approach of as low as five per cent. The beginning of June saw companies further reopen and making plans to reopen. A study by Elara Securities Inc. found that five Indian states, Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Karnataka, are contributing 27% to India’s GDP as India emerges from a total lockdown. By mid-June, unemployment levels were back to pre-lockdown levels. Online sales reached pre-covid level sales by June end. Hindustan Unilever registered pre-covid levels in sales in late June. On 2 July 2020, The Times of India reported that a number of economic indicators such as the manufacturers purchasing managers’ index, goods movement, GST collections, electricity usage and rail freight transport showed significant improvement as compared to previous months.
On 24 July 2020 Ajay Bhushan Pandey, the Finance Secretary of India, said that the “Indian economy could revive sooner than we expect” while Tarun Bajaj, the Economic Affairs Secretary said that he expects a v-shaped recovery. Localised intermittent shutdowns in July were seen to negatively affect aspects of the country’s economic recovery. On 29 July 2020, the Cabinet of India passed the National Educational Policy 2020 aimed at strengthening the economy. By 13 September 2020, Nomura India’s Business Resumption Index showed that economic activity was nearly back to pre-lockdown levels. On 24th September 2020, Economic Times reported that while speaking at the ET Global Summit, Kevin Sneader, global managing partner of McKinsey and Co. said that, “many economists have been talking about ‘V’, ‘U’ and ‘K’ shape recoveries ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Yet, in all likelihood, there could be an ‘X’ shaped recovery for global economies, including India.
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