El Niño, heat deaths and why parched Maharashtra cannot declare drought yet
Crops are wilting, but the drought manual says wait. Why?
Published 24 September 2026. Written by Pratidin from the reports linked at the end; every fact checked by a separate review before publishing. How we work
A report cited by The Hindu estimates that this year's strong El Niño could add about 15,800 heat-related deaths in India. The El Niño year has also left large rainfall deficits: the national seasonal shortfall is around 15-17%, and several States, including Karnataka, which has declared 177 of its 239 talukas drought-hit, face severe shortages.
Maharashtra is a key example. After a 40% surplus in July, rainfall in August was 46% below normal, and the State had received about 748 mm between 1 June and 15 September, 19% below average, with 31 of 36 districts deficient and Marathwada and Vidarbha worst affected. The Opposition has demanded an immediate drought declaration.
The Indian Express explains why drought has not yet been declared. Under the Manual for Drought Management (2016, updated 2020), States must assess several indicators, including rainfall deviation, dry spells, remote-sensing vegetation data, soil moisture and crop sowing, and verify them on the ground. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said relief measures have begun, but formal crop-loss assessments will be carried out after 5 October as the rules require, after which the State will seek central assistance.
Prelims facts
- El Niño is the warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific; it usually weakens the Indian monsoon.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can partly offset El Niño's effect on the monsoon.
- Under the Manual for Drought Management (2016, updated 2020), States declare drought using rainfall, vegetation, soil moisture, water and crop-sowing indicators.
Quick recall
- What is El Niño?
- The periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- How does El Niño usually affect the Indian monsoon?
- It usually weakens it, by shifting the Walker circulation and weakening monsoon winds.
- What can offset El Niño's effect on the monsoon?
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
- Which manual governs drought declaration in India?
- The Manual for Drought Management (2016, updated 2020).
- Who declares drought in India?
- State governments, using the indicators in the drought manual.
- Name the types of indicators used to declare drought.
- Rainfall deviation and dry spells, plus impact indicators: vegetation, soil moisture, crop sowing and hydrology.
- How much rain did Maharashtra get from 1 June to 15 September 2026?
- About 748 mm, 19% below average, with 31 of 36 districts deficient.
- When will Maharashtra carry out formal crop-loss assessments?
- After 5 October, as required by the rules, before seeking central assistance.
Prelims practice question
With reference to El Niño, consider the following:
1. It involves warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
2. It generally strengthens the Indian summer monsoon.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- 1 only
- 2 only
- Both 1 and 2
- Neither 1 nor 2
Show answer
Answer: (a) 1 only. El Niño warms the central and eastern Pacific and usually weakens, not strengthens, the Indian monsoon.
Use this in UPSC Mains: previous-year questions
Recurring theme: Monsoon variability, El Nino and drought management
- How to use this
Shows how a failing monsoon in an El Niño year hits water, food and incomes, illustrating Monsoon Asia's dependence on monsoon reliability.
- In this El Niño year India's national seasonal rainfall shortfall is around 15 to 17%, and Karnataka has declared 177 of its 239 talukas drought-hit.
- Maharashtra swung from a 40% July surplus to an August deficit of 46%, with 31 of 36 districts deficient and Marathwada and Vidarbha worst hit.
- Weak monsoons bring falling reservoir levels, food inflation and lower rural incomes.
- How to use this
Explains the current drought declaration and relief mechanism in an El Niño year and its weaknesses; it does not cover the 2010 NDMA guidelines, which you must add.
- Under the Manual for Drought Management (2016, updated 2020), States assess rainfall deviation, dry spells, vegetation data, soil moisture and crop sowing, then verify on the ground.
- Maharashtra's CM said crop-loss assessments would follow after 5 October as rules require; central NDRF help follows a State memorandum and an inter-ministerial team visit.
- Flag delays and rigid thresholds, and suggest real-time satellite and soil moisture data for phased declarations, weather-triggered insurance and notifying heatwaves as disasters.
- How to use this
Lets you argue that El Niño explains much, but not all, of India's monsoon and heat anomalies.
- El Niño warms the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and shifts the Walker circulation eastwards, bringing sinking air and weaker monsoon winds over India.
- Most, though not all, El Niño years have seen below-normal Indian rainfall, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can partly offset El Niño's effect.
- One report estimates this year's strong El Niño could add about 15,800 heat-related deaths in India.
Monsoon forecasts in an El Nino year hinge on whether the IOD offsets the El Nino effect.
Mains practice question
Explain how El Niño affects the Indian monsoon, and critically examine India's process for declaring drought. (250 words)
Model answer
El Niño is the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It shifts the Walker circulation eastwards, bringing sinking air and weaker monsoon winds over India. Most, though not all, El Niño years have seen below-normal Indian rainfall.
Effects on India
- Deficient and erratic monsoon, longer dry spells and delayed sowing.
- Higher temperatures and heat stress, with one estimate of about 15,800 extra heat deaths this year.
- Falling reservoir levels, food inflation and lower rural incomes.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can partly offset these effects.
How drought is declared
- States declare drought under the Manual for Drought Management (2016, updated 2020).
- Mandatory indicators: rainfall deviation and dry spells.
- Impact indicators: vegetation index, soil moisture, crop sowing and hydrology.
- Ground truthing through field surveys; declarations usually after the kharif assessment in October.
- Central help through the NDRF follows a State memorandum and an inter-ministerial team visit.
Weaknesses
- Delay: farmers suffer for weeks before relief is triggered.
- Rigidity: strict thresholds may exclude localised distress.
- Federal friction: States accuse the Centre of under-assessment.
- Heat is not a notified disaster, so heat deaths get limited funding.
Way forward
- Use real-time satellite and soil moisture data for early, phased declarations.
- Crop insurance payouts linked to weather triggers.
- Notify heatwaves as disasters and fund heat action plans.
El Niño is predictable months ahead; India's response should be anticipatory, not declared after the damage.
The basics
Why this matters
A strong El Niño year has left large parts of India short of rain, hurting crops, reservoirs and power supply. Drought relief depends on formal declaration, which follows a set process, so understanding both the climate driver and the rules matters for GS1 and GS3.
How El Niño affects the monsoon
In an El Niño year, warm water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific. This shifts the Walker circulation, weakening the winds that bring monsoon rain to India.
- 1Central and eastern equatorial Pacific heats up.
- 2Rising air moves east, away from Asia.
- 3Less moisture reaches India.
- 4Crops, reservoirs and power suffer.
Not every El Niño brings drought
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can offset El Niño, as it did in some past years. The broader system is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
- Warm eastern Pacific
- Usually weaker Indian monsoon
- Cool eastern Pacific
- Usually stronger Indian monsoon
How drought is declared
Under the Manual for Drought Management, States follow a sequence of checks.
- 1Mandatory triggersRainfall deficit and dry spells.
- 2Impact indicatorsVegetation, soil moisture, sowing and water.
- 3Ground truthingField verification of crop damage.
- 4DeclarationState declares drought by area.
- 5Central helpState seeks funds through a memorandum.
What is unsolved
The process makes declarations defensible but slow. Relief flows first from the State Disaster Response Fund, with extra central support for severe cases. Faster satellite-based assessment and crop insurance payouts could reduce delays.
You now know
- El Niño warms the central and eastern Pacific and usually weakens the Indian monsoon.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can offset El Niño.
- States declare drought under the Manual for Drought Management (2016, updated 2020).
- Maharashtra's formal crop-loss assessment will follow after 5 October.
Go deeper
In one line: A strong El Niño has left large parts of India short of rain, but drought can only be declared after a set of indicators is checked, which delays relief.
Why it matters for UPSC
GS1 (geophysical phenomena) and GS3 (disaster management, agriculture) both come together here. El Niño and drought declaration are frequent Prelims and Mains themes.
The core idea
El Niño warms the eastern Pacific and pulls rain-bearing circulation away from India, so monsoons in El Niño years are often weak. This year, Maharashtra swung from a surplus in July to a 46% deficit in August. But under the Manual for Drought Management, a State cannot simply announce drought: it must check rainfall, dry spells, vegetation, soil moisture and sowing, then verify on the ground. That makes declarations defensible but slow, which is why Maharashtra will assess losses only after 5 October.
Numbers and dates to remember
- 748 mm: Maharashtra's rainfall, 1 June to 15 September, 19% below average.
- 177 of 239 talukas: declared drought-hit in Karnataka.
- About 15,800: extra heat deaths estimated from this year's El Niño.
Where to go next
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation: The Pacific driver of India's monsoon
- Indian Ocean Dipole: The monsoon's regional counterweight
- Manual for Drought Management: How drought is declared
- State Disaster Response Fund: Where relief money comes from
In one line: El Niño sets the odds of a poor monsoon, but India's drought response depends on data, rules and funding.
Forecasting
The IMD's forecasts use ocean indicators including ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Better regional forecasts help farmers choose crops.
Why rules can delay relief
The Manual for Drought Management requires multiple indicators and ground truthing to avoid false declarations and ensure fair allocation. But farmers need money quickly.
Funding
States first use their State Disaster Response Fund; for severe drought, they seek support from the National Disaster Response Fund after a central team visits.
Long-term adaptation
- Drought-tolerant crops and millets.
- Micro-irrigation and watershed development.
- Faster crop insurance claims under PMFBY using remote sensing.
- Better understanding of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming world.
Where to go next
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation: The Pacific driver of India's monsoon
- Indian Ocean Dipole: The monsoon's regional counterweight
- Manual for Drought Management: How drought is declared
- State Disaster Response Fund: Where relief money comes from
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
The Pacific driver of India's monsoon
In one line: ENSO is a recurring pattern of changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure, with warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases.
The Southern Oscillation
It refers to swings in air pressure between the eastern and western Pacific, which move together with ocean temperature changes.
Effects on India
El Niño years are often associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall, and La Niña years with normal or above-normal rainfall, though not always.
Frequency
Phases recur irregularly, roughly every two to seven years.
Where to go next
- Indian Ocean Dipole: The monsoon's regional counterweight
- Manual for Drought Management: How drought is declared
Indian Ocean Dipole
The monsoon's regional counterweight
In one line: The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
Phases
In a positive IOD, the western Indian Ocean is warmer, which tends to support the Indian monsoon. In a negative IOD, the eastern side is warmer.
Interaction with El Niño
A positive IOD can partly offset El Niño's drying effect, as seen in some past years.
Forecasting use
The IMD considers the IOD alongside ENSO in its monsoon outlook.
Where to go next
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation: The Pacific driver of India's monsoon
- Manual for Drought Management: How drought is declared
Manual for Drought Management
How drought is declared
In one line: The Manual for Drought Management, issued in 2016 and updated in 2020, guides States on how to assess and declare drought.
Indicators
Mandatory triggers (rainfall deviation, dry spells) and impact indicators (remote-sensing vegetation indices, soil moisture, crop sowing, hydrology).
Categories
Drought is classified by severity, such as moderate or severe, which affects eligibility for central support.
Who declares
State governments, based on the indicators and field verification.
Where to go next
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation: The Pacific driver of India's monsoon
- Indian Ocean Dipole: The monsoon's regional counterweight
Manual for Drought Management: every story that connects to it (2)
State Disaster Response Fund
Where relief money comes from
In one line: The SDRF is each State's primary fund for immediate relief after notified disasters, including drought.
Legal basis
It is constituted under the Disaster Management Act, 2005.
Funding
The Centre contributes most of the fund, based on Finance Commission recommendations, with States contributing the rest.
Topping up
For disasters of severe nature, States can seek additional help from the National Disaster Response Fund.
Where to go next
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation: The Pacific driver of India's monsoon
- Indian Ocean Dipole: The monsoon's regional counterweight
Take the 24 September 2026 quiz: 30 Prelims-style questions with answers